10 experts to explain abnormal weather, we are in a bull or bear market

10 experts to explain abnormal weather, we are in a bull or bear market 

No matter what happens with the Cyprus crisis and fierce war in Korea, many investors want to get the details of all of this, how do you know whether we are in a bull or bear market. 

To help clear things, in this case 10 different analyst's perspective. 

Through macroeconomic data, market sentiment and more market minds holes - they go both ways 

There are a lot of chatter out there right now state of the market, S & P 500 index is now a serious challenge since the end of 1500 and 2007, the highest level. 

Where are we headed? Sideways? Overbought due to natural cooling off, "or worse, this rally is a farce, we crash? 

I will not pretend I have a crystal ball, or some amazing, unique insight into the market. But what I have is a smart commentary € "the long weekend, there are a lot of great things that caught my eye voracious appetite. 

Here is an expert IA  m reading, now, they are the current environment: 

Bull 

Business Insider discovered this gem of quotations from the Societe Generalâ € ™ package Juckes, discharge any bad circumstances, in one simple sentence: ① € œThe reality is that the things we fear and long-term liquidity, which often weaken the determination of any bear.â €? This following important background. Because, after all, a lot of investment managers can not go to cash, "even if they could, many do not really think it is necessary. 

Here reasons: 

Stock returns conducive Fund: Fund managers also entered a recess on capital flows pick up the signs of interest, see the bottom of the bear market in 2009 increased steadily since. Holland Capital Advisors noted that a recent survey found that the â € œasset allocator to allocate more funds to the stock market than at any time since 2011.â February

Apple: Barronâ € ™ last week, there is a pretty good article, a long-term bull market opportunity, seize the present. OEIS in a new bull market here? "? Jacqueline Doherty by the bullish rally grounds, including transportation, the expected capital expenditures, of course, Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) bargain price. 

Market Indicators Looking Good: This is a long list of bullish signs, from a technical trader Ralph Acampora round a few weeks ago, is worth reconsidering, since most remain true € "including market breadth, the presence side of the cash, at the bottom of yield and strength in a variety of global markets.

Macro picture (Clear) to improve: "Fortune" senior editor at large Geoff Colvin have a deeper macro comprehensive report, scheduled for Feb. 4 issue of the journal. He talked about job growth and recovery hopes last week. He pointed out that the Gospel of fracturing the economy, the capital markets stabilize and improve employment, among other things. 

Particularly on housing: There Cullen Roche pragmatic point are some of the newly capitalist bias, according to the housing MARKETA € ™ contributions have run in the past few years and crash, "but still can not € ™ t discount room while a recent The study attributes lionâ share of economic growth, the housing market, and that the real estate is "the best-looking œtheindicatorâ €? We have. Housing seems to be restored nicely for all indicators € "as owners of housing stock, from PulteGroup (NYSE: PHM) and its 160% rate of return over the past 12 months of broad-based SPDR S & P Homebuilders ETF (NYSE: XHB), to keep moving higher. 

Low expectations: Back to my original settings: everyone is still so gloomy things - "persistently high unemployment, Europe, federal spending pictures, etc. But Charles Crane Douglas Winthrop consultant recently told Matt Krantz the United States today, â € œWhen expectations low, it € ™ s market continues to rise, we have a low expectations.â? In other words, it does not make traders € ™ t much pleased with this thing. 

Bear 

Because of the bulls is a big screen settings, here € ™ I introduce short: Credit Suisse said in a recent report, "€ œthe state, investor risk appetite serious depressedâ? Through massive deleveraging and widespread pessimism signal, it will not take too much causing a crash, and to prove that this rally is sustainable burden is very large in other words, whether or not the economy is slowly improving ISNA € ™ t A point "Investors need to feel good about the economy and the market can really push us into bull mode, which is a very different measure. 

Against the ceiling: Bespoke Investment Group to note that the market is in its trading range of up to € "best heralds pause, in the worst case could mean correction. 

Risk Factors: A host Dr. Doom Roubini (Nouriel Roubini) pointed out some serious macroeconomic problems, investors continue to ignore the struggle in China and other emerging markets, geopolitical risks in the Middle East, "the U.S. debt. Conclusion is what is it? "€ œWhile's a perfect storm of opportunity ......" All of these risks are at their most deadly form of materialized € "low, any one of which alone would be sufficient to delay the global economy and tip into recession. €? 

Central bank loses steam: Many people somewhere in the central bank's trust and "œyou can not fight the Fed € ™ t?'s Attitude, but still believes Comstock Partners, Washington dysfunction, after years of loose monetary policy of the Fed to stay Under the lack of any ammunition means that fiscal policy will be neutral at best, in the worst case to become a headwind. 

Individual investors remained skeptical: American Association of Individual Investors sentiment measures, and it looks to retail investors showed optimism have retreated recently again € "from nearly 47 percent to about 44%. Really, it € ™ Nice, about 44% optimistic and 29% neutral and 27% bearish, but in the past two years, there are only three weeks bullish sentiment across the 50% mark, "they never last. Bulls seem to remain skeptical, according to the AAII latest data. 

Institutional investors, too: the seller is the most pessimistic analysts, they have been since the late 1990s, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch survey. Of course, it € ™ s worth noting sell side is often on the wrong side of the trade - "For example, the late 1990s, pessimism, marking a great time to buy," and furthermore, these A € œexpertsâ €? ? Does not turn bullish until after 2001, when the market after the collapse of dot-com bubble. But the mood is still worth noting that, despite past mistakes. 

Do not confuse short-term rebound in the continuing rise in optimism continues to heat up, this could be a contrarian argument. Lance Roberts StreetTalk consultants have 1,560 intrayear target for the S & P 500 index, but worried about how things will shake out later. His mood chart shows that we are already creeping into irrational exuberance, which means that investors may be throwing money into the market does not really think about the appropriate valuation. 

Consumers worry: in particular: high energy prices is a common fear "seems higher gasoline and crude oil, coupled with changes in payroll taxes, which may be bad for consumer spending. 

Global Employment worry: We talked a lot about home improvement job market, but very interconnected world € ", if you want to get a look at the terrible state of global unemployment, look at this chart from the Atlantic arduous long-term employment (a years or more than one year), shows how in Europe soared. well as the stability of the call in the European Union, but it is very difficult to imagine the face of such a labor market stability. 

Irrational Exuberance? Volume is low, the VIX is ridiculously low, most bears have to admit defeat. But it is precisely this Ş € ™ s time to look at the chart and began entertaining the possibility of contraction. 

I can always post a link, there are some more below. But what you see now, do you have any idea? Weighing in the comments section below.