These four trends in the price of oil will determine what is next

These four trends in the price of oil will determine what is next 

Crude oil is still the most important commodity on the planet. Without it, economic and political life as we know it will cease to function. 

Four trends will determine the future price: 

Chinese transition to the 1st oil-importing countries. 

Chavez's death. 

Iran's distribution of Chinese-made weapons. 

New forecast U.S. natural gas boom. 

1) transition to the 1st Chinese oil imports 

Goods editor "Financial Times" • Javier Blas, said: 

China has overtaken the U.S. to become the world's largest net importer of oil, the generational change that will shake the geopolitics of natural resources. 

United States since the mid-1970s has been the world's largest net importer of oil, energy resource-rich countries, such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Venezuela shaping Washington's foreign policy direction. 

US-led energy self-sufficiency in the direction ...... slow, but compounding progress, and gradually get rid of the fuel inlet. China is moving in the opposite direction. This dependence on foreign sources of oil is becoming more in order to keep their economies going forward. 

This sea change is conducive to the United States. Everyone is talking about China, the United States pales in fiscal outlook barrel dragon growing energy vulnerability ... 

2) the death of the "El President" 

With the world's proven oil reserves of 18%, Venezuela is America's fourth-largest oil supplier. But "El President" under the rule of the fifth decline in oil production. This is because the state-owned oil giant PDVSA fell into serious neglect and disrepair, Chavez turned it into the arm of the welfare state. 

Chavez's death means new opportunities to re-enter Venezuela Western oil giants to renegotiate, Chavez has tore up the contract, and to provide manpower and expertise to help Venezuela's oil flow rate again. This is a long-term geopolitical positive, but in the short to medium term instability has little effect. 

The threat from Iran 

Iranian-made weapons to achieve China is to improve the comb. By New York Times: 

Iran alone topsail Chuanjian coast of Yemen carrying advanced Chinese air defense missile development may presage upgrade to the Middle East to support Iran's proxy, amazing other countries in the region and updating U.S. foreign challenges. 

Middle East have long been waiting for a huge fireball. It is becoming increasingly clear that Iran wants to obtain from the game that day ...... 

America's energy revolution 

As the Wall Street Journal reported: 

U.S. natural gas production will accelerate over the next three decades, new research indicates that provide strong evidence that recycling U.S. energy boom will persist for a generation. 

In Texas, a key natural gas field, combined with ongoing research elsewhere, by far the most detailed study shows that U.S. shale rock formations will provide affordable natural gas through the 2040 growing source, and then decline slowly .. . 

The impact of shale gas boom will be profound - especially large-scale natural gas as a transportation fuel. Major companies such as Federal Express (FedEx) and Caterpillar has invested heavily in the switch to natural gas powered vehicles. Electric and hybrid vehicles are also increasingly using natural gas as fuel for power plants, natural gas consumption is a strong candidate. 

In fact, there are strong incentives at every level - military, political, economic - United States to embrace shale gas. 

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